Brent Crude Market & Shocks Impact Simulator

Supply & Risk Parameters REAL-TIME ENGINE

Middle East Supply Disruption 2.5 mbpd

0.0 mbpd (Normal) 4.0 8.0 mbpd (Severe)

Crude supply taken offline through pipeline damage, embargoes, or tanker corridor blockades.

Strategic Reserve (SPR) Release 1.0 mbpd

0.0 (No Draw) 2.0 4.0 mbpd (Emergency)

Government counter-cyclical inventory release to cushion physical spot market shortfalls.

Net Physical Market Balance: +1.5 mbpd deficit

Geopolitical Risk Premium 20.0%

0% (Calm) 30% 60% (War Escalation)

Financial speculative buffer pricing in potential tanker insurance hikes and future supply threats.

BASELINE ANCHOR

Pre-Crisis Spot Price: $85.00 / bbl

CNN Shock Benchmark: $105.00 / bbl

Projected Brent Crude $105.00 +23.5% vs $85 Baseline

Market Volatility Regime High Volatility Stress: Elevated backwardation

Pump Price Delta +$0.48 per gallon retail gasoline

Jet Fuel Cost Index 1.28x Aviation crack spread index

12-Month Brent Crude Price Curve Projection

Simulated trajectory accounting for supply decay, refinery adjustment, and SPR depletion over a 12-month horizon.

Pre-Crisis Baseline ($85) CNN Report Shock ($105) Custom Scenario

Downstream Economic Consequences TRANSMISSION CHANNELS

⛽ Retail Gasoline Pump Impact

+$0.48 / gal

Refiners pass crude oil spot price changes to wholesale gasoline at an empirical pass-through of ~$0.024/gal per $1/bbl crude movement over 4–6 weeks.

✈️ Airline & Freight Fuel Multiplier

1.28x Multiplier

Kerosene/jet fuel crack spreads widen during middle-distillate regional shortages, prompting airline fuel surcharges and freight logistics cost inflation.

📈 Headline CPI Inflation Delta

+0.65% pts

Energy weighting in the Consumer Price Index pushes annualized headline inflation higher by ~0.0325 percentage points per dollar crude delta.

Durable Scenario Report Ready: Download the current simulation state, underlying supply numbers, and projected 12-month forward pricing table.