Shock Stress-Testing Controls
LIVE INPUT REGISTRY
$102.50
Crude spot baseline traded at or above $100 psychological threshold.
18.5%
Percent curtailment of ~19.5 mbpd daily petroleum transit through the Persian Gulf.
1,500 kbpd
IEA and US coordinated stockpile drawdown to offset physical market deficits.
$28.40
Refiners' gross conversion spread per barrel of crude into downstream products.
1.42x
Marine insurance risk premiums and re-routing around the Cape of Good Hope.
Economic Shock & Downstream Telemetry
ESTIMATED IMPACTS
Retail Gas Pump Price
$3.89
Per gallon regular unleaded (US avg)
Jet Fuel Cost
$3.42
Per gallon kerosene-type jet grade
Net Supply Deficit
2,100 kbpd
Unfilled physical crude gap (after SPR)
Headline CPI Drag / Surge
+0.65 pts
Direct energy component inflation surge
Global Annualized GDP Growth Drag
-0.42%
Combined consumer purchasing squeeze & trade shock
DISRUPTED SUPPLY: 3,600 kbpd
SPR MITIGATION: -1,500 kbpd
0 kbpd
NET SHORTFALL: 2,100 kbpd
MAX 6,000 kbpd
Consumer Transportation
+$0.48/gal
HIGH EXPOSURE
Commercial Aviation
+24.2% Fuel Bill
SEVERE SQUEEZE
Global Maritime Freight
+42.0% Surcharge
CRITICAL SURCHARGE