Brent Crude Shock Propagator & Downstream Energy Pass-Through Analyzer

Shock Controls

Quick Shock Scenarios

Baseline Brent Crude ($/bbl)

$88.00

Shocked Brent Crude ($/bbl)

$96.00

Refinery 3:2:1 Crack Spread ($/bbl)

$24.50

Gasoline Pass-Through Elasticity

2.38¢/$

Empirical standard: ~$0.0238 to $0.0245 retail pump increase per $1/bbl crude change.

Crude Spot Delta

+$8.00/bbl

+9.09% surge

Retail Gas Impact

+19.0¢/gal

$0.1904/gal

Diesel Surcharge Delta

+19.6¢/gal

$0.1960/gal

Headline CPI Energy

+0.28 pts

Annualized drag

Retail Regular Gasoline

⛽

+19.04¢

Direct consumer pump price escalation calculated at 2.38¢ per $1.00/bbl crude surge across standard 42-gallon refinery yield.

Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD)

🚛

+19.60¢

Commercial distillate wholesale-to-pump adjustment (+2.45¢/$1.00/bbl rate). Drives industrial logistics and farm equipment overhead.

Jet A-1 Aviation Kerosene

✈

+21.33¢

Airline fuel spot price surge per gallon (+8.42% total fuel expense increase for commercial air carriers).

US Trucking Surcharge

🚚

+1.85%

DOE index-linked standard freight fuel surcharge escalation added directly to interstate dry-van and reefer invoice billings.

Standard 42-Gallon Crude Barrel Yield Decomposition Gross Refining Output

Gasoline 19.5g

Distillate 12.0g

Jet 4.0g

Heavy 4.0g

Petro 2.5g

Finished Gasoline (46.4%)

Ultra-Low Diesel (28.6%)

Jet Kerosene (9.5%)

Heavy Residual / Asphalt (9.5%)

Petrochem Naphtha (6.0%)

3:2:1 CRACK SPREAD

$24.50/bbl

Refining Margin

COMPOSITE PRODUCT VALUE

$120.50/bbl

Crude + Crack Spread

AIRLINE MARGIN DRAG

-126 bps

Operating Margin Hit

"Rockets & Feathers" Asymmetric Pass-Through Dynamics Pump price response lag

Empirical market evidence shows wholesale rack prices respond to crude spikes within 24–48 hours ("rockets"), while retail pump prices fully absorb increases over 14–21 days.

Day 1-3

45%

Rack Jump

Day 7

72%

Urban Pumps

Day 14

91%

Suburban Fleet

Day 28

100%

Full Settlement

Saved energy shock coefficient arithmetic

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Read the explanation

Entered ninety-six less baseline eighty-eight gives eight dollars per barrel. Bars share zero at six pixels per barrel dollar. Saved oil prices and headline are fixtures, not verified current market values. Source gasoline coefficient point zero two three eight times eight gives point one nine zero four dollars per gallon; diesel coefficient point zero two four five times eight gives point one nine six. Bars share zero at two thousand pixels per gallon dollar. These are source linear assumptions rather than observed retail transmission. A hypothetical sixteen-dollar barrel difference at unchanged coefficient gives point three eight zero eight dollars per gasoline gallon, twice point one nine zero four. Bars share zero at one thousand pixels per gallon dollar. Refining-margin inputs and inflation heuristics are separate. Complete raw model export/reset and native resize preserved; economic validity remains unproved.