Inning-by-Inning Win Probability Shift Curve
Simulating 9-Inning Trajectory
Chourio 1st-Inning Impact Breakdown
| Event Type | Frequency | Avg WPA Added | Brewers Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lead-off HR | 4 PAs | +11.8% | 4 - 0 (1.000) |
| 1st Inning RBI / Single | 12 PAs | +7.4% | 10 - 2 (.833) |
| 1st Inning Extra Base Hit | 8 PAs | +9.2% | 7 - 1 (.875) |
| Walk / Base Traffic | 6 PAs | +4.1% | 5 - 1 (.833) |
'Strike First' Advantage Matrix
Brewers Win % When Scoring First
72.4%
MLB Baseline Win % When Scoring First
68.1%
Brewers Win % When Trailing First
38.5%
MILWAUKEE BREWERS WIN PROBABILITY REPORT
Jackson Chourio Early Scoring Impact & Leverage Analysis
Simulated State
1st Inning, +1 Run Lead
Win Expectancy
61.8%
Chourio Action Impact
+11.8% WPA
Brewers Score 1st Baseline
72.4% Win Rate