Simulation Parameters
+15.4%
Estimated UK share of TAC across repatriated stocks
18.5%
Veterinary EHCs, customs checks, border post spoilage
72.0
Processing and offshore crew crewing deficits (0-100)
64.0
Bunker fuel and operational overhead pressure (0-100)
£850.0M
Annual benchmark seafood exports to EU/Global markets
Net Economic Impact
-£126.8M
Net Annual Fleet Shift
Export Friction Penalty
£157.2M
Non-tariff trade barrier cost
Net Quota Value Gain
+£30.4M
UK share expansion value
Operational Viability
58.4 / 100
Fleet resilience composite
Comparative Balance Sheet: Quota Uplift vs. Export Friction (£M)
Net Deficit
Structural Assessment
Primary structural constraint: Non-tariff veterinary and customs friction. While quota repatriations provide positive raw catch allowances (+£30.4M), new export hurdles—including Export Health Certificates (EHCs), border control posts, and shipping delays for fresh langoustines and salmon—generate a -£157.2M drag, yielding a net industry deficit.
Decomposed Impact Table
| Economic Metric | Baseline | Simulation Value | Industry Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quota Expansion Gain | £0.0M | +£30.4M | Additional landings value from TCA reallocated shares |
| Export Sanitary & Customs Friction | £0.0M | -£157.2M | Direct paperwork cost, transit delays & market price discounts |
| Net Industry Balance Sheet | £0.0M | -£126.8M | Aggregate annual shift in commercial sector earnings |
| Labour Headwind Index | 50.0 | 72.0 | Crew shortages limiting full vessel sea-days |
| Fleet Operational Score | 75.0 | 58.4 | Viability pressure index accounting for input inflation |