Broadcast Ratings & Viewer Retention Modeler
Simulate the dual reality of broadcast television: measure week-to-week premiere decay alongside year-over-year audience gains and live sports lead-in spillover.
Episode Run Table & Diagnostic Ledger
| Ep # | Air Title / Date | Lead-In (M) | Current Viewers (M) | Prior Year (M) | YoY Growth | vs Premiere | Action |
|---|
The "60 Minutes" Broadcast Paradox Explained
Why does a flagship newsmagazine like 60 Minutes simultaneously report a triumph and a drop? Because premiere broadcasts frequently benefit from late-afternoon national NFL doubleheaders running past 7:30 PM. When millions of sports viewers linger during the transition, Episode 1 soars to 10.8M+.
Episode 2 normalizes with a smaller lead-in window, producing a standard -18% premiere decay. Yet because the prior television season faced weaker overall broadcast consumption or counter-programming, current episode 2 is up +14% year-over-year. Both headlines are mathematically true.
Methodology & Metric Definitions
What is Lead-In Spillover?
The carryover audience from the program immediately preceding the time-slot. For Sunday evening programs, late NFL overruns can inflate the initial quarter-hour (Q1) by up to 35% before audience attrition stabilizes around core viewers.
C3 / Commercial Pod Retention
Live-plus-three-day commercial ratings measure whether viewers stay through commercial breaks. A 91%+ pod retention index indicates high engagement and premium upfront advertiser value.
Season Premiere Decay Curves
Industry average broadcast attrition between season premiere and episode 2 ranges between 12% to 22% across scripted dramas and newsmagazines as promotional marketing lifts subside.