Financial Times • Global Policy & Economics Lab

Bundestag Coalition & Majority Stress-Tester

Coalition Presets:
325
CDU/CSU + SPD
Working Majority: 316 / 630 (50%+1)
Debt Brake Reform 2/3: 420 / 630 (66.7%)

CDU/CSU (210) and SPD (115) combine for 325 seats, securing a stable 10-seat operational cushion.

Combined Seats
325
51.6% of 630 seats
Debt Brake Reform (2/3)
No
95 seats short of 420
Strategic Friction & Global Ramifications
Foreign Policy & NATO Alignment High
Strong transatlantic defense continuity, resolute support for Ukraine, and coherent EU leadership.
Constitutional Debt Brake (Schuldenbremse) Blocked
Requires 420 seats (2/3 supermajority) in Bundestag and Bundesrat. Major structural reform remains mathematically impossible without opposition votes.
Fiscal & Industrial Cohesion Moderate
Friction between Union corporate tax cuts and SPD social infrastructure spending demands compromise.