California Wildfire Liability & Utility Rate Simulator

Policy & Loss Assumptions LIVE MODEL

BENCHMARK SCENARIO PRESETS

Annual Wildfire Gross Losses $4.5B

Total estimated annual fire damages across investor-owned utility territories.

State Wildfire Fund Backstop Share 35%

Proportion of catastrophic liabilities absorbed by AB 1054 / state insurance fund.

Ratepayer Bond Amortization 15 Years

Recovery period across which securitized wildfire debt is added to monthly bills.

Base Grid Capex & Rate Growth 6.5% / yr

Underlying non-wildfire distribution, hardening, and electrification capital rate base expansion.

Inverse Condemnation Drag: Utilities remain strictly liable for damages regardless of fault, making private equity capital prohibitively expensive when liabilities exceed backstop limits.

Utility Solvency & Affordability Telemetry Stressed / Uninvestable

Utility Cost Burden $2.93B Direct balance-sheet exposure

Avg Monthly Bill Impact $142.50 +48.3% over median electric bill

Credit Rating Outlook BBB- One notch above junk status

Ratepayer Surcharge Drag 18.4¢ / kWh Wildfire bond line item

Scenario Comparison: Monthly Bill vs. Utility Uncovered Burden

Multi-Scenario Financial Matrix

Scenario	Wildfire Loss	Backstop %	Utility Burden	Monthly Impact	Credit Rating