California Wealth Tax Polling & Revenue Estimator

Fiscal & Voter Headwinds Summary

Real-time outcome from active policy parameters

Voter Electorate Balance In Favor: +3.0% Lead

51.5% Support

48.5% Oppose

Support (Likely Nov Voters)

Oppose / Undecided Leaners

Demographic Support Breakdown Household Wealth & Income Brackets

Scenario Export & Reporting

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Download the evaluated dataset comprising demographic turnout weights, behavioral avoidance deductions, and net projected yields.

Methodology & Source Note: Grounded in the Politico survey reporting a narrow lead for California wealth tax proposals. Modeled tax base assumes ~160,000 California taxpayers with net worth exceeding the active threshold, adjusted for legal restructuring, relocation to zero-income-tax states (Texas/Florida/Nevada), and multi-tiered compliance audits by the FTB.

Policy & Behavioral Parameters

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Wealth Exemption Floor $50M

Net personal asset threshold before excise wealth levy takes effect. Lower threshold broadens tax base but increases opposition.

Annual Wealth Tax Rate 1.5%

Annual percentage tax assessed on worldwide net worth above statutory threshold.

Baseline Voter Support (Electorate) 51.5%

Reported initial statewide affirmative support prior to threshold and campaign spending feedback.

Out-of-State Relocation / Flight 12.0%

Estimated percentage of taxable asset holders changing residency or sheltering entities out of state.

Audit & Compliance Rate 82.0%

Proportion of assessed revenue successfully captured post-valuation challenges and trust disputes.

Revenue Yield Sensitivity ($B) By Compliance Level