US-Canada Tariff Negotiation & Trade Leverage Workbench

1. US Tariff & Strategic Presets

US Universal Tariff Shock 25%

Canadian Retaliation Mode

Strategic Canadian Concessions

Defense / NORAD to 2.1% GDP Joint Border & Fentanyl ($4.5B CAD) Critical Minerals Supply Guarantee

Concession credits offset ~11.5% of US political grievance pressure.

2. Bilateral Leverage Frontier & Disruption Matrix D3.js Equilibrium

CA Negotiation Leverage Score

68 / 100

Exemption Probability

74%

Est. Canadian GDP Drag

-1.42%

US Midwest Disruption Index

82 / 100

Bilateral Key Industrial Flows (Vulnerability vs Lock-In)

Flow Sector	Annual Bilateral	US Pain / Lock-in	CA Export Risk	Strategic Status

3. Macro Feedback & Strategy Dossier

CAD / USD Elasticity

0.692 (-3.4%)

US Core CPI Spillover

+0.48%

Canadian Domestic Stimulus Buffer $12B CAD

Strategic Assessment Summary Strong Leverage

US PADD 2 refinery reliance on 4.0M bpd Canadian heavy crude and Midwest fertilizer potash bottlenecks grant Canada decisive counter-tariff asymmetric leverage, minimizing long-term tariff persistence if paired with defense pledges.

Export Negotiation Brief

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