Canada-US Tariff Impact Simulator

Evaluate bilateral cross-border trade shocks across key integrated sectors. Adjust Canadian and US retaliatory duties to observe trade volume contraction, retail CPI price spikes, and supply chain vulnerability indices.

Affected Bilateral Trade
$337.4B
Across 4 core sectors
Average Applied Tariff
21.2%
Sector unweighted
Trade Contraction
-$48.6B
Elasticity modeled
Estimated CPI Inflation
+1.84%
Consumer basket shift

Sector Tariffs

Energy & Crude Oil 10.0%
Baseline: $132.4B Elasticity: Low (0.3)
Automotive & Parts 25.0%
Baseline: $98.6B Elasticity: High (1.4)
Agriculture & Food 25.0%
Baseline: $42.1B Elasticity: Very High (1.8)
Manufacturing & Metals 25.0%
Baseline: $64.3B Elasticity: Moderate (1.1)
Supply Chain Disruption Index 78.4 / 100
Critical vulnerability: Just-in-time automotive assembly & agricultural inputs.

Bilateral Flow: Baseline vs Post-Tariff Volume ($B) -14.4% net trade

Export Model Results:
● Active Simulation Live

Macroeconomic Assumptions & Elasticity Rationale

When Canada enacts reciprocal customs duties on U.S. goods, the resulting contraction in bilateral volume depends heavily on sector substitution elasticity and input integration:

Energy & Petroleum (Low Elasticity 0.3) Refineries along the Midwest and Gulf Coast have fixed processing configurations for Canadian heavy oil (Western Canadian Select), keeping short-term volume relatively inelastic despite added duties.
Automotive & Components (High Elasticity 1.4) Parts cross the Ontario-Michigan-Ohio border up to seven times before final vehicle assembly. Cumulative tariffs trigger swift re-routing and operational line halts.
Agriculture & Consumer Goods (Elasticity 1.8) Foodstuffs, meats, and packaged consumer goods face immediate supermarket shelf price elasticity, leading consumers to substitute domestic alternatives or curb spending.

Sources & Evidence Tracking