2026 U.S. Auto Loyalty Intelligence

Car Brand Loyalty & Switching Dynamics Explorer

Simulating multi-cycle buyer cohort decay (Rn) and cross-segment defection across 13 makes.

Top Retained Brand
Tesla (64.0%)
Cycle 4 Equity: 16.78%
Lowest Retained Brand
Lucid (50.0%)
Cycle 4 Equity: 6.25%
Average 2026 Loyalty
56.4%
Tesla Multiplier: 2.68x over Lucid
Active Horizon Horizon
20 Years
4 Decisions @ 5 Yrs/Cycle

Multi-Cycle Cohort Survival Decay (Rn) Logarithmic compounding

At 4 replacement cycles (20-year horizon), Tesla retains 16.78% of its original buyer cohort vs. 6.25% for Lucid—a 2.68x customer equity advantage resulting from a 14 percentage point initial spread.

Brand Repurchase & Equity Matrix 13 Benchmark Makes

Make Cat Loyalty (R) Churn (1-R) Cycle 4

Defection & Churn Redistribution Dynamics

Simulating where the 43.6% average churning buyers migrate based on 2026 segment affinity matrices.

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