Defensive Degradation Baseline
Season Baseline: 142 Tackles (21.4% Share)
Defense Rating Shift
-4.2 EPA
Expected Points Added/Game
Tackle Deficit
11.8 tackles
Per Game Projected Loss
3rd-Down Vulnerability
+8.5%
Opponent Conversion Shift
Run-Stop Win Rate Drop
-14.2%
Front-7 Gap Exposure
Linebacker Replacement & Depth Matrix
Replacement Linebacker Quality:
Backup Committee (55% Efficiency)
Opponent Rushing Play Tendency:
Neutral Spread (45% Run)
Front-7 Coverage Gap Heatmap (Visual Model)
Middle Field Exposure
Cedric Gray's absence creates an open tackle basin between the A and B gaps. Adjust replacement efficiency above to simulate how effectively secondary backers plug this space.
EXPOSED GAP