Demographic drag (working-age population decline) is the one structural reason credit growth cannot return to pre-2020 levels, regardless of policy stimulus.
Working-age population peaked 2015, declining ~0.5%/yr since
Credit intensity (TSF/GDP) rose from 1.5x to 2.5x 2008–2023 to offset demographic drag
Diminishing returns: each 1% credit growth now yields <0.3% GDP growth vs 0.6% in 2010
Demographic Drag Sensitivity
-30 bps/yr