China Macro Momentum & Output-Retail Divergence Workbench

Source: Reuters Macro Reporting (July Release: Output 5.1% YoY vs Retail 2.7% YoY) Divergence: +240 bps
Output-Retail Spread
240 bps
5.10% Output vs 2.70% Retail
Domestic Demand Drag
-0.62%
Net GDP Consumption Gap
Capacity Equilibrium
0.93
Supply/Demand Absorptive Ratio
Q3 GDP Baseline → Stimulated
4.70% → 5.05%
+35 bps Policy Uplift
Macro Transmission & Sector Divergence Map Live D3 Waterfall & Gap Model
July Macro Assessment: Industrial production (+5.1% YoY) outpaces consumer retail (+2.7% YoY) by 240 bps. Consumer trade-in subsidies (300B RMB) deliver a +35 bps consumption contribution boost to achieve 5.05% Q3 GDP target.
Sector Channel Supply Growth Consumer Demand Net Divergence Status
Policy Stimulus & Scenario Matrix Interactive Levers
Consumer Trade-in Vouchers 300B RMB
Special Sovereign Debt / Infra 500B RMB
Equipment Upgrade Credit 200B RMB
Property Investment Drag -140 bps
Economic Transmission Equations
• Spread = Output YoY (5.1%) − Retail YoY (2.7%) = 240 bps
• Capacity Ratio = Demand Velocity / Supply Index = 0.93
• Q3 GDP Uplift = Policy Multipliers × Capital Allocations = +35 bps
Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super