China Oil Shock Buffer & Importer Strategic Runway Workbench

1. Shock & Reserve Valves

Iran / Gulf Disruption 2.2 mb/d

China SPR Strategic Release 1.4 mb/d

China Discounted Absorption 1.1 mb/d

OPEC+ Spare Capacity Deployed 0.8 mb/d

Other Importers SPR Draw (IEA/OECD) 0.9 mb/d

Maritime Freight & Insurance Index 1.45x

2. Importer Policy Playbooks

Refinery Yield Shift (-0.4 mb/d) Mandatory Demand Cap (-0.6 mb/d) Bilateral Crude Swaps Cape Reroute Logistics

Dynamic Crude Balance & Chokepoint Map DEFICIT: 0.00 mb/d

Simulated Brent $86.20 Base: $82.50 (+4.48%)

Net Global Deficit 0.00 mb/d Supply perfectly neutralized

OPEC Pricing Leverage 41.5% Diluted by China buffers

3. Strategic Buffer Runway

Importer Reserve Horizon Moderate Buffer - Action Window Open

118 Days

At current net draw, importer SPR reserves last ~3.9 months before critical threshold.

China Cushion Duration 5.4 Months Commercial & Strategic inventory depletion speed

Strategic Importer Recommendation

China's unilateral domestic stockpile deployment shields international prices, keeping crude under $90/bbl. Importers must urgently deploy fuel substitution & secure non-Hormuz term contracts before China's reserve draw window narrows.