Structural Divergence: China Shock 1.0 vs. China Shock 2.0
Shock 1.0 (2000s): Driven by WTO accession, labor cost advantage, and low-tech manufacturing (textiles, furniture, basic electronics). Primary impact was felt in blue-collar employment across developed economies with consumer deflationary benefits.
Shock 2.0 (2020s): Driven by massive high-tech industrial policy, green tech overcapacity (EVs, lithium batteries, solar equipment, advanced legacy chips), and high capital intensity. Threatens high-margin manufacturing output in Germany, Japan, and the US, forcing aggressive trade regionalization and secondary dumping in developing nations.