Civic Compliance & State Obligation Index

Macroeconomic Drivers

Calibrate civic pressure variables in real time

Institutional Trust 42%

0% Total cynicism 100% High social contract

Enforcement Stringency 35%

0% Impunity 100% Zero tolerance / fines

Economic Friction (Cost of Living) 78%

0% Abundance 100% Acute financial squeeze

Policy Interventions & Shocks

The Dilemma for the Left: Weak voluntary compliance undermines universal public provision. When citizens exit civic obligations, state enforcement risks criminalizing vulnerable households or suffering devastating revenue shortfalls.

Mean Compliance

75.8%

Aggregate across 4 duties

Fiscal Deficit Gap

£4.82

Projected annual lost revenue

State Strain Index

High Risk

Institutional capacity tier

Primary Defector Group

Cost-of-living squeezed middle

Dominant defection demographic

Obligation Decay & Compliance Trajectories (5-Year Horizon)

Council Tax School Attendance Healthcare Co-pays TV Licence

Domain-Specific Obligation Breakdown

Civic Duty Sector	Statutory Baseline	Current Compliance	Estimated Deficit Impact	Primary Driver

Model State: Representative Fixture Verified