Equilibrium Tension Vector
Fragile Truce (Active)
Systemic Stability
64%
Friction Index
42
Coalition Anxiety
68%
Backchannel Viability
Moderate-High
Strategic Equilibrium Diagnostic
Bottleneck: Coalition Electoral Anxiety
The reported non-confrontational signal reduces direct friction between Imran Khan and the military establishment. However, high ruling coalition insecurity creates a structural bottleneck, as de-escalation threatens the coalition's parliamentary majority and political survival.
Institutional Stakeholder Levers
Real-time Dynamic Balancer
PTI / Imran Khan
Conciliatory Truce
Military Establishment
Cautious Containment
Ruling Coalition
Vulnerable Resistance
Judiciary / Courts
Procedural Relief
Pairwise Institutional Friction Gauges
PTI ↔ Military: 28 (Truce)
PTI ↔ Coalition: 82 (Acute)
Military ↔ Coalition: 45 (Aligned)
Judiciary ↔ Military: 50 (Bargaining)
Modeled on strategic interaction theory & Reuters exclusive report (Feb 2026). Calculations execute purely locally.