Projected 2100 Median Warming
+2.31°C
Retired RCP 8.5 was +4.0°C–4.8°C
Avoided Emissions (Modeled 2035)
14.8 Gt CO₂e/yr
IRENA 2025 verified baseline: 8.4 Gt/yr
EV Oil Displacement
2.50 M bbl/d
Current 2026 actual: 1.70 M bbl/d
Global Emissions Peak Horizon
2026–2028
Carbon Monitor / TRACE Plateau
Global Warming Trajectories (1990–2100)
Empirical Climate Action Tracker & IPCC Assessment Comparison
Retired Worst-Case (RCP 8.5 / 4°C+)
CAT Stated Policies (2.4°C–2.6°C)
Active Adjusted Pathway (User Model)
Net Zero 1.5°C Cooling Trajectory
Sectoral Mitigation Levers (2025–2035)
Annual Renewable Capacity Additions
750 GW/yr
2025 actual: 692 GW (85.6% of all global additions).
Battery Storage Growth Multiplier
1.40×
US +30.8 GWh H1 2026, China 400.8 GWh Q1 2026.
Transport EV Oil Displacement
2.50 M bbl/d
Current China-led displacement: 1.7M bbl/d. 67% NEV share in China.
Heavy Industry EAF Conversion
35%
Electric arc steelmaking (e.g. Algoma Steel 70% cuts, 3 Mt/yr site).
Building Heat Pump Penetration
58%
53% of new US apartments in 2025. Outsold gas furnaces 4 yrs.
UN MARS Methane Leak Repair Rate
45%
Rapid-cooling super-emitters (Turkmenistan satellite alerts).
Regional Empirical Decarbonization Matrix
Verified 2025/2026 ground truth metrics across leading jurisdictions
China
Leader
Solar vs Coal Fleet: Solar > Coal Capacity (1,274 GW)
NEV Market Share: 67% (June 2026)
EV Oil Displacement: 36 Mt oil equivalent / H1
Grid Storage Scale: 155.2 GW / 400.8 GWh
United States
Accelerating
New Grid Capacity: 93% Renewables & Storage
Storage Additions: 30.8 GWh added H1 2026
Heat Pump Adoption: 53% New Multi-family Homes
2030 Storage Forecast: 683 GWh total planned
European Union
Structural Transition
Renewables in Final Energy: >25% of all consumption
Wind Fleet Total: 311 GW Installed
Norway / UK BEV Share: 98.7% / 30% Registrations
Germany Coal Phase-out: Tracking ahead of 2029 legal target
Emerging Markets
High Momentum
Pakistan Solar Boom: ~27 GW Installed Solar
Africa Solar YoY Growth: +54% Year-over-Year (2025)
South Africa Mining: Anglo American 3 GW Target
Maritime Electrification: MV Yampu 6.8 MWh Vessel
Verified Empirical Mitigation Ledger
IRENA • Carbon Brief • Carbon Monitor • CSIRO • UN MARS| Mitigation Vector | Verified Metric (2025/2026) | Emissions Impact | Citation & Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Renewable Power | +692 GW capacity installed in 2025 (85.6% of new build) | 8.4 Gt CO₂ avoided annually | IRENA 2025 Review |
| EV Transport Fleet | 36 Mt oil eq displaced in H1; 1.7M bbl/d global oil displaced | 35 Mt CO₂ avoided in Q2 (China) | Carbon Brief Analysis |
| Utility Storage Scaling | US 165 GWh total; China 400.8 GWh installed | Gas peaker plant displacement | CSIRO / US EIA 2026 |
| Industrial Electrification | Algoma Steel conversion to continuous Electric Arc Furnace | -70% site emissions (~3 Mt CO₂/yr) | Algoma Industrial Filing |
| Super-Emitter Repair | Satellite leak repair on 8 major oil & gas plumes (Turkmenistan) | Rapid high-GWP mitigation | UN MARS Alerts |