Overall Failure Rate
89.6%
Statistical benchmark: ~90%
Cumulative Success (LOA)
10.4%
Likelihood of Approval
Approved Drugs
10.4 / 100
89.6 Candidates Sunk
Cap. Cost / Approved Drug
$1.42 B
Includes failed candidate sunk costs
STAGE-BY-STAGE CANDIDATE SURVIVAL FUNNEL
Interactive D3 Flow
Phase I ($15M)
Phase II ($40M - Efficacy Bottleneck)
Phase III ($120M)
Approved ($10M Review)
Attrition / Failure
COHORT OUTCOME DISPERSION (100 NCEs)
10 Approved
Market Launch
Failed in Ph3/Review
Failed in Ph2
Failed in Ph1
ATTRITION ROOT-CAUSE DECOMPOSITION
Primary Bottleneck: Efficacy
Clinical Pipeline Economics & Attrition Ledger
Industry Baseline: Ph2 'Valley of Death' causes ~52% of all drug failures
| Trial Phase | Entering Cohort | Transition Rate | Advancing | Terminated | Avg Trial Cost | Total Phase Cost | Cumulative Sunk Loss |
|---|