Draft Setup & Scenarios
Full 17 G
Wire-to-wire 2025 pace (0 games missed)
15 Games
Precautionary calf/muscle rest (Field Yates baseline)
13 Games
Moderate staggered load management
Projected Games Played
15 Games
CMC Projected Touches (17-g pace)
320 Touches
Rushing: 230 carries
Receiving: 90 targets (75 rec)
Guarantees replacement value (+12.4 PPG floor) during any missed games.
Monte Carlo Season Win-Rate & Ceiling Matrix
✓ 10,000 Seasons Simulated
CMC Projected PPG
23.4
351.0 total FP
CeeDee Lamb PPG
19.8
336.6 total FP
Weekly Differential
+3.6 PPG
+18.2% advantage
Playoff / Title Odds
72.4%
19.1% Champ Odds
Weekly Fantasy Point Probability Density Curve
CMC Distribution
CeeDee Lamb
Field Yates Draft Takeaway: Even if McCaffrey misses 2 games for precautionary muscle management, his 23.4 PPG ceiling provides a decisive +3.6 weekly point advantage over tier-1 WR alternatives. Paired with late-round backfield insurance, his fantasy playoff qualification rate is 72.4% vs 58.1% league baseline.
30+ Point Weekly Ceiling Probability
Christian McCaffrey (Dual Threat)
34.8% of Weeks (5.9 games)
CeeDee Lamb (Target Volume)
19.4% of Weeks (3.3 games)