Institutional Levers
Chesney UCLA 2026/27
1.85x
Academic-to-Athletic endowment conversion (Samueli family impact)
#19
National recruiting rank velocity (Chesney currently sitting at #19)
4 Starters
JMU veteran pipeline carryover (e.g. Wayne "Newman" Knight)
+12.0%
Defensive coordinator matchup rating & ex-Oregon defensive staff edge
7.8 / 10
Opponent composite strength rating across the 12-game slate
Coaching Ladder Escalation
Historical Proof
D3 Milestones
Salve Regina
3 straight winning yrs after 8-yr drought
D2 Dominance
Assumption
Back-to-back 11-win campaigns
FCS Breakthrough
Holy Cross
First ever FCS playoff victory
G5 Transition
JMU
Reloaded gutted team to 9 wins & CFP
P4 Target
UCLA
Samueli unlock & #19 recruit class
Benchmark
Willie Fritz
Blinn → SHSU → GaSo → Tulane → Houston
Expected Wins
8.4
Out of 12 Regular Season Games
Bowl Eligibility
93.6%
Odds of 6+ Victories
CFP Contention
31.4%
Odds of 10+ Regular Season Wins
Turnaround Index
88.4
Scale 0–100 (Fritz Houston = 74.2)
12-Game Win Probability Distribution (D3 Engine)
Poisson-Binomial Simulation
Sub-Bowl (<6 Wins)
Bowl Eligible (6–9 Wins)
CFP Contender (10+ Wins)
Projected Big Ten 12-Game Slate Analysis
Opponent Matchups
| Wk | Opponent | Site | Opp. Rating | Matchup Win Probability | Tactical Notes |
|---|
Audit Dossier Ready
Download complete simulation parameters, telemetry results, and ladder analysis.