Coalition Fracture Modeler
Simulate how leadership liability triggers strategic distance, hedging, and cascading defections across 40 competitive and base legislative districts.
Caucus Alignment & Vulnerability Matrix (40 Sample Districts)
Suburban & Split-Ticket Districts Leading Defection
Under a -8.5% kryptonite drag, members in districts with Cook PVI between R+0 and R+5 face general election extinction unless they break. Base members (R+12 or higher) remain incentivized to maintain complete loyalty to deter primary challenges.
The ‘Kryptonite’ Dilemma
When a charismatic party leader's national negatives climb, their coattails reverse into an anchor. Candidates in swing battlegrounds must choose between losing moderate independents in November or facing an enraged partisan primary base in spring.
Threshold Cascade Dynamics
Mark Granovetter's threshold model dictates political defection: the first defector absorbs maximum retribution. But once a critical mass (15-20%) fractures, the collective safety penalty dissolves, unleashing sudden non-linear breaking waves.
PVI & Donor Hegemony
Districts with Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) greater than R+8 rarely break, regardless of national toxicity, because the primary election remains the only existential hurdle. The break is almost always initiated in educated suburban districts.