Slate Avg Spread
15.83
Points across 3 games
Underdog Cover Sim
0.52
Early season variance edge
High Volatility Flags
2
Spread var > 12.0 pts
Slate Volatility Tier
High Opening Variance
Turnover shock active
Simulated Margin of Victory Distribution (Favorite Margin > 0)
Dotted gold line indicates spread threshold (-6.5 pts). Green is Favorite Cover, Red is Underdog Cover corridor.
Fav Cover
Dog Cover
Spread Line
Cover Probabilities & Outright Odds
Modeled Favorite Outright Win:
72.4%
Favorite Cover Line (-6.5):
50.8%
Underdog Cover / Outright:
49.2%
Push Threshold Probability:
2.4%
Early-Season Vulnerability Vectors
Backdoor Cover Vulnerability:
18.6%
Blowout Likelihood (> 21 pts):
14.1%
Standard Deviation (Sigma):
13.4 pts
Variance Status:
Moderate Volatility
Week 1 Tactical Briefing: Early kickoff slates exhibit elevated spread volatility (+20% standard deviation) due to unvetted depth charts, new offensive coordinators, and opening tackle efficiency drops. Even favored juggernauts risk backdoor garbage-time field goals.