Congressional Majority Seat Calculator & Coalition Risk Explorer

Model Inputs

Calibrate generic ballot national swing, executive approval drag, and baseline majority resilience.

Generic Ballot Shift -1.5%

-8.0% (Dem Surge) 0.0% +6.0% (GOP Surge)

Leader Approval Rating 38.5%

30.0% (Severe Drag) 45.0% (Par) 60.0% (Tailwind)

Pre-Election Caucus Baseline 221

200 218 Majority 240

Competitive Tossup Districts 28

10 (Frozen Map) 28 50 (High Volatility)

Durable Scenario Export

House Seat Distribution Spectrum Total: 435 Districts

Democratic Caucus: 220 218 TO CONTROL Republican Caucus: 215

218 Majority Line

Safe / Likely D: 196 Competitive Tossups: 28 Safe / Likely R: 211

Net Seat Shift

-6

Caucus loss relative to 221

Approval Drag Impact

-2.7 seats

Drag from 38.5% approval

GOP Tossup Win Rate

14.3%

4 of 28 tossups won

Majority Buffer

-3 seats

Deficit below 218 threshold

District Sensitivity & Pivot Hierarchy

Rank-ordered key battleground districts determining the House majority threshold.

District Rank	District ID	Incumbent Baseline	Estimated Post-Shift Margin	Caucus Status	Flip Vulnerability

Methodology & Analytical Grounding: Based on The Economist's reporting on the tension between Republican congressional majorities and leader unpopularity. The regression uses an empirical elastic seat-vote model: each 1.0% generic ballot shift translates to ~2.2 House seats, amplified by leader approval elasticity of ~0.415 seats per point below the 45.0% baseline. Survival probability is modeled via normal cumulative density against historical polling-error variance ($\sigma = \pm 3.1\%$).