Playoff Probabilities & Magic Number Telemetry
● LIVE
Wild Card Probability
42.8%
+14.2% from Carroll HR
Race Status
Within 2.5 Games
NL Seed #4 Contender
Magic Number Delta
3
Games to swing threshold
Projected Win Pct
0.550
89.1 Projected Wins
Wild Card Playoff Odds vs Deficit Trajectory
Current Pin: 2.5 GB
Postseason Chase Mechanics
When Corbin Carroll crushed the walk-off home run, Arizona prevented a disastrous 3.5 games back slide, keeping the deficit locked at exactly 2.5 games.
In Major League Baseball Wild Card races, bridging a 2.5-game deficit with 16 games remaining requires a minimum +3 game swing relative to the wild-card cutoff holder. The walk-off delivers a tangible +14.2% leverage swing compared to a loss in that contest.
Exportable Game-State Payload