Fed Core PCE Inflation Gauge
July 2026 Print
Federal Reserve's Primary Inflation Target & Path Simulator
Core PCE (YoY)
3.30%
Fed Target
2.00%
Effective Real Rate
+2.08%
Component Disaggregation
PCE Weight vs 12M Contribution
July Baseline
3.30% Core PCE Contribution Stack
3.30% Total
0.2%
1.0%
2.1%
SECTOR
WEIGHT & TREND
YOY RATE
CONTRIB
Core Goods
Wt: 22.4%
Deflationary
+1.00%
+0.22%
Housing Svc
Wt: 17.8%
Gradual Cool
+5.40%
+0.96%
Supercore
Wt: 59.8%
Sticky Services
+3.55%
+2.12%
Sector Shock Stress-Testing
Housing Disinflation Pace (MoM)
+0.35%
Supercore Services Pace (MoM)
+0.28%
12-Month Target Convergence Simulator
Projected Path to Fed 2.0% Mandate
Base (0.22%)
Glide (0.17%)
Sticky (0.32%)
Simulated Forward Monthly Core PCE Run-Rate (MoM)
+0.22% MoM (2.67% Ann.)
TARGET MONTH
May 2027
12M FWD CORE PCE
2.67%
POLICY TIGHTNESS
Restrictive
At the current
0.22% monthly pace
, Core PCE will decelerate from
3.30%
in July 2026 to
2.67%
in 12 months, reaching the Fed's 2.0% objective in
May 2027
under a restrictive real rate stance (+2.08%).
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