CPI Inflation Rate & Federal Reserve Rate Hike Probability Simulator

Calibrated macro analysis tool modeling FOMC decision odds following the August seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index increase. Explore sub-component pressures (shelter, energy, core services) and implied rate pathways.

Macro Scenarios:

Headline Price Pressures BLS August Cycle

Monthly CPI Rise (MoM) 0.4%

0.0% (Deflationary)0.4% (CNBC Report)1.0% (Surge)

12-Month CPI Trajectory (YoY) 3.2%

2.0% (Fed Target)3.2% (Current)6.0% (Unanchored)

Inflation Component Drivers Sub-Index Points

Shelter Contribution +0.22 pts

+0.05 ptsLagged Sticky Rent+0.45 pts

Energy Sector Contribution +0.08 pts

-0.10 ptsCrude Volatility+0.30 pts

Core Services (ex-Housing) +0.10 pts

+0.02 ptsSupercore Indicator+0.30 pts

Labor & Wage Growth 3.9%

2.5%Atlanta Fed Tracker5.5%

FED POLICY PROJECTION // AUGUST CPI SYNTHESIS

High Volatility

Rate Hike Probability

68.5%

Next Week FOMC

Implied Rate Change

+25 bps

Policy Shift Action

Projected Terminal Rate

5.5%

Upper Target Band

Sensitivity Rating

High Volatility

Treasury Yield Impact

The 0.4% monthly inflation surge reported by CNBC drives the 12-month rate to 3.2%. Elevated shelter (+0.22) and energy rebounding push next week's FOMC hike probability to 68.5%, solidifying high volatility across rates and dollar indexes.

FOMC Outcome Distribution Probabilities

Implied Fed Funds Path Quarterly %

Macro Parameter Audit & Policy Sensitivities Live Production Model

Factor	Observed Input	Benchmark Level	Hawkish Impulse	FOMC Impact Weight
Monthly CPI (MoM)	0.40%	0.17% (Target Pace)	+135 bps annualized	Very High (40%)
Annual CPI (YoY)	3.20%	2.00% (Inflation Target)	+1.20% excess	High (25%)
Shelter Index Contribution	+0.22 pts	+0.12 pts (Equilibrium)	Lagged persistence	Moderate (15%)
Core Services ex-Shelter	+0.10 pts	+0.05 pts	Wage transmission	Moderate (12%)
Energy Factor	+0.08 pts	0.00 pts	Rebounding headline	Low-Medium (8%)