Refinery Market Parameters
$82.50
$2.75
$3.10
92.4%
15.0%
Central Bank Telemetry & Margins
Monetary Transmission Monitor
3-2-1 Crack Spread
$21.85
Margin per bbl (3 crude → 2 gas + 1 diesel)
2-1-1 Crack Spread
$20.35
Distillate-parity benchmark (2 crude → 1 gas + 1 diesel)
Annualized Fuel CPI Impact
+1.8%
Headline pass-through contribution
Inflation Pressure Index
High
Elevated refining premium > $20/bbl
Central Bank Rate Guidance Posture
BoE / Fed / ECB Reaction Model
Hawkish Rate Watch
Elevated crack spreads ($21.85/bbl) combined with fuel shortage bottlenecks (15.0%) signal persistent supply-side cost pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey highlights that refined product spreads reveal persistent inflation stickiness beyond raw crude quotes.
Fuel Inflation Risk Gauge
72% Pressure
| Component | Unit Cost / Yield | Barrel Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| Input: Crude Cost (3 bbl base) | $82.50 / bbl | -$247.50 |
| Output: 2 bbl Gasoline (84 gal) | $2.75 / gal | +$231.00 |
| Output: 1 bbl Diesel (42 gal) | $3.10 / gal | +$130.20 |
| Gross Revenue per 3 bbl cycle | 126 gal combined | +$361.20 |
| Operational & Shock Adjustment | Util 92.4% | Shock 15.0% | $21.85 / bbl |
Intelligence Artifacts
✓ Ready for export
// Terminal initialized with locked representative fixture.
// Crude: $82.50 | Gas: $2.75 | Diesel: $3.10 | Shock: 15.0% | Util: 92.4%
// 3-2-1 Spread: $21.85 | Annualized Fuel CPI Impact: +1.8% | BoE Posture: Hawkish Rate Watch
Source Context & Public Market References:
Reporting baseline grounded in Walter Bloomberg financial wire report (@DeItaone) on central banks monitoring crack spreads: "CENTRAL BANKS FOCUS ON FUEL PRICES AS INFLATION RISK. Central banks are increasingly watching refining margins, or ‘crack spreads,’ as fuel shortages push gasoline and diesel prices higher. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said refined fuel prices may provide a better [indicator of inflation]."
Primary Wire: @DeItaone Wire Status #2097653777125855732
Market Analysis: FXStreet Central Bank Energy Coverage
Commodity Standards: EIA 3:2:1 Refining Margin Formulae