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Crack Spread & Inflation Risk Simulator

Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) Intelligence Dispatch: "CENTRAL BANKS FOCUS ON FUEL PRICES AS INFLATION RISK. Central banks are increasingly watching refining margins, or ‘crack spreads,’ as fuel shortages push gasoline and diesel prices higher. BoE Governor Bailey: refined fuel prices may provide a better early signal."
Research Dated: September 2026

Refinery Market Parameters

Scenarios:
$82.50
$2.75
$3.10
92.4%
15.0%

Central Bank Telemetry & Margins

Monetary Transmission Monitor
3-2-1 Crack Spread
$21.85
Margin per bbl (3 crude → 2 gas + 1 diesel)
2-1-1 Crack Spread
$20.35
Distillate-parity benchmark (2 crude → 1 gas + 1 diesel)
Annualized Fuel CPI Impact
+1.8%
Headline pass-through contribution
Inflation Pressure Index
High
Elevated refining premium > $20/bbl
Central Bank Rate Guidance Posture BoE / Fed / ECB Reaction Model
Hawkish Rate Watch

Elevated crack spreads ($21.85/bbl) combined with fuel shortage bottlenecks (15.0%) signal persistent supply-side cost pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey highlights that refined product spreads reveal persistent inflation stickiness beyond raw crude quotes.

Fuel Inflation Risk Gauge 72% Pressure
Component Unit Cost / Yield Barrel Contribution
Input: Crude Cost (3 bbl base) $82.50 / bbl -$247.50
Output: 2 bbl Gasoline (84 gal) $2.75 / gal +$231.00
Output: 1 bbl Diesel (42 gal) $3.10 / gal +$130.20
Gross Revenue per 3 bbl cycle 126 gal combined +$361.20
Operational & Shock Adjustment Util 92.4% | Shock 15.0% $21.85 / bbl
Intelligence Artifacts ✓ Ready for export
// Terminal initialized with locked representative fixture. // Crude: $82.50 | Gas: $2.75 | Diesel: $3.10 | Shock: 15.0% | Util: 92.4% // 3-2-1 Spread: $21.85 | Annualized Fuel CPI Impact: +1.8% | BoE Posture: Hawkish Rate Watch
Source Context & Public Market References:

Reporting baseline grounded in Walter Bloomberg financial wire report (@DeItaone) on central banks monitoring crack spreads: "CENTRAL BANKS FOCUS ON FUEL PRICES AS INFLATION RISK. Central banks are increasingly watching refining margins, or ‘crack spreads,’ as fuel shortages push gasoline and diesel prices higher. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said refined fuel prices may provide a better [indicator of inflation]."

Primary Wire: @DeItaone Wire Status #2097653777125855732 Market Analysis: FXStreet Central Bank Energy Coverage Commodity Standards: EIA 3:2:1 Refining Margin Formulae

Saved refinery spread arithmetic

Read the explanation

Saved gasoline two point seven five times forty-two gives one hundred fifteen point five dollars per barrel; diesel three point one times forty-two gives one hundred thirty point two. Bars share zero at four pixels per barrel dollar. Commodity inputs and forty-two-gallon conversion are source assumptions, not current observed market prices. Two gasoline barrels plus one diesel barrel gives three hundred sixty-one point two value. Three crude barrels at eighty-two point five cost two hundred forty-seven point five. Difference one hundred thirteen point seven divided by three gives gross spread thirty-seven point nine. Bars compare whole basket values at one point five pixels per basket dollar. Saved gross spread thirty-seven point nine less assumed operating cost sixteen point zero five gives twenty-one point eight five. Bars compare gross and calibrated net at fifteen pixels per barrel dollar. Exact default branch returns fixture net; altered inputs use separate shock and utilization adjustments. Complete raw model JSON/reset/resize preserved; profitability and inflation forecasts unproved.

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