Zach Cregger’s Resident Evil: Box Office Tracking & Franchise Record Simulator

Model Scenario Calibrations Scenario: Deadline Tracking

Domestic Opening Weekend (OW) $35.0M

$15M (Raccoon City+) $26.65M (Afterlife Record) $60M (Peak Comp)

Domestic Theatrical Multiple (Legs) 2.50x

1.8x (Slasher Falloff) 2.5x (Sept Horror Avg) 3.1x+ (Barbarian Legs)

International Split Ratio (OS %) 68%

50% (Domestic skew) 68% (Modern Split) 82% (Final Chapter Peak)

Production Budget (P&A ~1.0x) $55M

$30M (Blumhouse Tier) $55M (Est. Sony/Cregger) $80M (Sci-Fi Scale)

*Franchise record holder to date: Resident Evil: Afterlife ($26.65M OW in Sept 2010). Zach Cregger previously directed 2022's sleeper hit Barbarian ($10.5M OW to $45.4M Global off a $4.5M budget).

Domestic Opening

$35.0M

+31.3% vs. RE: Afterlife

Projected Domestic Total

$87.5M

#1 In RE Franchise

Projected Worldwide

$273.4M

#3 Worldwide Franchise

Theatrical Break-Even

Profitable

Target: ~$137.5M WW

Comp: Cregger 2026 vs. Prior 7 Films

Franchise Box Office Index All 7 Historic Releases

Rank	Film (Release Year)	Opening Weekend	Dom Total	Worldwide

Executive Theatrical Distribution Memo Sony Pictures / Studio Tracking Desk

Tracking Assessment: Resident Evil (Zach Cregger)

Frame: Post-Labor Day September | Model Output

GREENLIT / RECORD

At a projected opening weekend of $35.0M, Zach Cregger's Resident Evil establishes a new domestic franchise record, eclipsing 2010's Resident Evil: Afterlife ($26.65M) by +31.3%. With post-Labor Day horror legs modeled at 2.50x, domestic theatrical finishes at an estimated $87.5M. Incorporating a 68% overseas distribution footprint yields a $273.4M worldwide gross against a $55M production budget, comfortably surpassing the estimated $137.5M theatrical break-even hurdle.