Geopolitical Commodity Model

Middle East Escalation & Crude Oil Supply Impact Simulator

Model price trajectories, daily supply deficits, and maritime risk premiums following reported military actions against Iranian Revolutionary Guards-linked shipping assets.

Source Dispatch: “Crude prices rose after American forces hit ‘multiple’ ships linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in a new escalation in the Middle East conflict.” — Financial Times (@FT, Sept 9)

Escalation Variables Interactive

$74.50
Pre-incident benchmark (Brent/WTI basket).
3 (Multiple Ships)
Level 3 reflects FT report of hitting 'multiple' IRGC-linked vessels.
Insurance war-risk surcharge & tanker rerouting delay factors.
50 Mbbl
Coordinated IEA/DOE emergency crude stock release over 100 days.

Market Impact Synthesis Model Active

Market Outlook: High Volatility Warning
Elevated
Projected Crude $84.20 +13.02%
Risk Premium $9.70 per barrel surcharge
Net Daily Deficit 2.4 mb/d (million bbl/day)
Cape Reroute Added +11 transit transit days

30-Day Crude Futures Trajectory ($/bbl)

D3.js model simulating baseline vs. post-escalation price trajectory with reserve stabilization decay.

Projected Escalation Curve
Pre-Strike Baseline
Reserve Stabilization Path

Maritime Route Vulnerability Index

Corridor Volume Throughput Risk Status War Risk Insurance Surcharge
Strait of Hormuz ~20.5 mb/d Alert Status +1.85% hull value
Bab el-Mandeb / Red Sea ~7.8 mb/d Heightened +1.20% hull value
Cape of Good Hope Diverted Alternative Flow Operational Delay +$3.20/bbl extra bunker
Daily Supply Deficit: 2.4 mb/d
Price Delta (%): +13.02%
Projected Price: $84.20/bbl
Risk Premium: $9.70/bbl
Calculated Status: High Volatility Warning