📈 Futures Curve Term Structure (M1 to M12)
Backwardation
| Contract | Tenor (Days) | Base Basis | Settlement Price | Spread vs Spot | Roll Yield (Ann.) |
|---|
Market Structure Dynamics: Backwardation vs Contango
With effective spot at $117.50/bbl (CNBC benchmark $109.00 + $8.50 risk premium) and prompt inventories drawing down by -15.4 Mbbl, front-month M1 trades at $119.60 while 1-year M12 sits at $114.70. This creates an inverted curve with an M1-M12 spread of +$4.90, giving roll yield benefits to long physical hedgers.
Source Grounding: CNBC Headline "$109 🛢️" (Sept 14, 2026)
Verified Source Post ↗
CALCULATED PROOF TELEMETRY (CANONICAL STATE)
Effective Spot:117.5
Structure:Backwardation
M1 Price:119.6
M3 Price:118.9
M6 Price:117.0
M12 Price:114.7
M1-M12 Spread:4.9
Inventory Days:21.4