Retail Gas Price Component Decomposer

Dissecting Vice President JD Vance's statement attributing national average gas prices crossing $4/gallon to Iran tensions. Powered by physical 42-gal refinery yield equations and pass-through elasticity.

Geopolitical Shock Inputs

Persian Gulf Disruption 1.8 M bpd

Estimated crude supply taken offline or rerouted.

Brent Crude Risk Premium $14.20 / bbl

War-risk maritime insurance & speculative hedge per barrel.

Base Benchmark Crude (WTI) $82.50 / bbl

Refining Crack Spread (3:2:1) $24.50 / bbl

Regional PADD & Tax Structure

Decomposition Insight: The Iran geopolitical risk premium accounts for $0.34/gal (8.3%) of today's $4.12 retail price. Crude feedstock represents 48.2% of the retail total.

Physical Pump Price Waterfall ($/Gallon) 42-gal Barrel Physical Yield: 19.5 gal Gasoline

Simulated Pump Price

$4.12

BREACHES $4.00 THRESHOLD (+12¢)

Cost Layer	Yield Formula / Factor	$/Gallon	Share

Household Commuter Budget Stress

Calculates monthly fuel budget inflation relative to a stable pre-crisis baseline ($3.45/gal).

Vehicle MPG

Round-trip Commute (Miles/Day)

Monthly Gallons Consumed (22 workdays): 28.2 gal

Simulated Monthly Fuel Cost: $116.18

Iran Risk Premium Surcharge (Monthly): +$9.59

Net Increase Over Pre-Crisis Baseline: +$18.89

Data Export & Macro Proof Ledger

Export validated mathematical components for journalism, policy briefs, or macroeconomic analysis.

Methodological note: Standard barrel-to-gallon pass-through utilizes a 42-gallon barrel yield of 19.5 finished gasoline gallons net of distillate/heavy fraction credits, factoring 58% dynamic pass-through elasticity to retail pumps within a 14-day rolling window. Federal excise tax: 18.4¢/gal; state and local taxes based on API composite data.

Retail Gas Price Component Decomposer

Geopolitical Shock Inputs Reset to AP State

Household Commuter Budget Stress

Data Export & Macro Proof Ledger

Geopolitical Shock Inputs