Cyclone Landfall & Surge Risk Mapper | Coastal Meteorological Hazards

Cyclone Parameters

Category 3 (Major)

Verified Scenarios & Presets

Vortex Structure & Atmosphere

Max Sustained Wind (Vmax) 105 kt (121 mph)

Central Pressure (Pc) 955 hPa

Radius of Max Wind (RMW) 28 km (15 nm)

Forward Speed (Vtrans) 11 kt (20 km/h)

Track Heading / Approach Angle 335° (NNW)

Ocean & Coastal Bathymetry

Shelf Width

Tidal Phase

Max Surge Potential 3.82 m (12.5 ft)

Hurricane Wind Radius (64kt) 62 km (33 nm)

Gale Wind Radius (34kt) 220 km (119 nm)

Estimated Landfall T+ 26.5 Hours

Drag the eye on the map or scrub track progress to inspect landfall timing.

HURRICANE POLO • CAT 3 Eye: 18.2°N, 103.8°W • Heading: 335° Landfall Window: Mon 14:00 UTC (Jalisco / Colima Reach)

64+ kt (Hurricane)

50-63 kt (Storm)

34-49 kt (Gale)

Surge > 3.0m (Extreme)

Surge 1.5 - 3.0m

Landfall Surge & Wind Hydrograph: Manzanillo Peak: T+ 24h

Coastal Reaches & Inundation Hazard

Station / Port	Peak Wind	Surge Elev.	Hazard Risk

Physical Vortex Dynamics & Coastal Surge Mechanics

This hazard assessment engine combines the modified Holland (1980) Wind Field Formulation with dynamic storm surge setup equations based on the Inverse Barometer Effect and shallow-water coastal wind stress.

Holland Vortex Formulation

The radial wind profile is computed using:
V(r) = [(B / ρ) · (Rmax / r)^B · ΔP · exp(-(Rmax / r)^B) + (r·f / 2)^2]^0.5 - (r·f / 2)
Forward translation speed (Vtrans) is vectorially added, generating the physical asymmetric maximum wind quadrant on the right-front flank (Northern Hemisphere).

Storm Surge & Bathymetric Setup

Coastal surge is the sum of barometric suction:
Δη_baro = (1013 - Pc) × 0.010 m/hPa
combined with cross-shelf wind stress:
Δη_wind = (Cd · ρ_air · U_onshore² · L_shelf) / (ρ_water · g · H_mean)
adjusted for astronomical tide phase and coastal shoreline orientation.

Evacuation & Risk Thresholds

Surge above 2.5 meters (8.2 ft) threatens coastal ground-floor structural integrity. When combined with sustained hurricane-force winds (>64 kt), critical transportation corridors and ports require precautionary closures prior to the onset of tropical storm gales (34 kt).