AI Datacenter Moratorium & Compute Relocation Simulator

1. Jurisdictional Moratorium & Relocation

Targeted RTO / Grid Regions2 Selected

Capacity Blocked by Moratoria1.5 GW

Interstate Relocation Elasticity85% % of rejected MW developers rebuild in adjacent friendly states/nations

Baseline Global Frontier Cluster18 GW

Algorithmic Efficiency Doubling12 Months Rate inference/compute capability doubles per MW (Chinchilla, pruning, FP4)

Hardware Density Doubling24 Months

Effective Compute Loss

1.25%

0.23 GW Net Lost

Milestone Delay

18.4 Days

~2.6 Weeks

Interstate Spillover

1.28 GW

Exported to other RTOs

Local Grid Relief

1500 MW

Local substation headroom

Policy Dimension	Local Moratorium Impact	Assessment & Mechanism
Local Grid Strain & Rates	High Relief	Protects local distribution capacity, avoids immediate substation upgrades and water stress.
Frontier AI Milestone Delay	18.4 Days (<2%)	Algorithmic gains & interstate compute reallocation quickly overcome blocked physical capacity.
AI Power Concentration	No Effect	Hyperscalers simply shift capex to pro-growth states or sovereign international hubs.
Macro AI Governance	Negligible (<2% capability shift)	Local bans are not an effective substitute for compute governance or alignment treaties.