Capacity Attrition Waterfall (GW)
Real vs Announced
Announced PR
14.50 GW
Phantom Bookings
-6.09 GW
Grid Bottleneck
-2.18 GW
Deliverable Reality
4.82 GW
Political Rhetoric vs Tax Concession Settlement Matrix
Public Grandstanding Moratorium Threat:
High (68 / 100)
Tax Concession De-escalation Power:
-32.8 pts
Behind-the-Meter Power Neutralization:
-17.5 pts
Effective Political Friction Retention:
34.2% (De-escalated)
The Economist Core Finding: Over 40% of Northern Virginia data centre queue entries represent the same developer filing redundant requests across 3+ substations. Once municipal tax windfalls ($120M+/yr) are factored in, local political resistance retreats, leaving deliverable energization at ~4.82 GW by median year 2029.