Allied Defense Procurement Lock-in Analyzer

Procurement Stack Inputs

NATO Member

Total Defense Budget ($B) $42.5B

US Prime Vendor Spend ($M/yr) $1,445M (3.4%)

Decoupling Strategy

Architectural Subsystem Layers

Intelligence Fusion & OS Palantir AIP/Foundry

Decoupling Friction: $820M · 5.5 yrs

Sensor & Platform Avionics Lockheed F-35 C2

Decoupling Friction: $2,400M · 8.0 yrs

Tactical Cloud & Satellite Link MIL-SATCOM / Starlink

Decoupling Friction: $410M · 3.2 yrs

Dependency & Lock-in Dynamics (D3)

FLOW MAP

Subsystem Layer	Transition Cost	Friction Horizon	Interoperability Penalty	Sovereignty Risk

Sovereignty & Cost Impact

SEVERE RISK

Total Decoupling Cost

$3,630M

2.51x Annual Supplier Spend

Replacement Duration

6.8 Years

Weighted engineering & recertification timeline

Allied Interoperability Status

Severe (NATO Link-16/MADL Degraded)

Sovereign replacement induces protocol desync during transition window

Low direct spend masks massive sovereign inertia: decoupling exceeds 250% of direct annual vendor spend with high mission-degradation risk during transition.