Crisis Stability Index
82
Base threshold: 0-100
Deterrence Margin
25
$C_D - R_C$ delta
Equilibrium State
Deterred
Dynamic game outcome
Spiral Risk Score
18
Action-reaction feedback
Escalation Ladder & State Nodes
Tier 3: Show of Force
Strategic Payoff Matrix
Payoffs: (Defender, Challenger)
Def / Chall
Challenger: Back Down
Challenger: Escalate
Defender: Maintain
Status Quo
(0, 0)
Challenger Probe
(-10, +15)
Defender: Deter Signal
Successful Deterrence
(+25, -15)
Spiral Conflict
(-50, -50)
Strategic Telemetry Synthesis
Classic Deterrence Equilibrium Active: Defender military capability ($C_D = 85$) supported by strong signal clarity ($\gamma = 0.80$) sufficiently exceeds Challenger resolve ($R_C = 60$). The Challenger computes a negative expected payoff for further escalation at Step 3 (Show of Force), preserving crisis stability.