+0.14
Expected Points (EP)
68.4%
Conversion Prob
14.2%
Explosive Play Rate
2.1%
Turnover Risk
4th-Down Optimal Decision Engine:
RECOMMENDATION: GO FOR IT (+1.8% WP)
54%
Go for It (Conv. %)
82%
Field Goal (Make %)
Net 41y
Punt (Net Pin)
| Unit Matchup | Detroit Metric | Indianapolis Metric | Tactical Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive Line Run Push (Yards Before Contact) | 3.12 YBC (Rank 3) | 2.45 YBC (Rank 18) | DET Interior Advantage |
| Defensive Front Havoc Rate / TFL | 14.8% Havoc | 11.2% Havoc | DET Penetration |
| Goal-Line Power Conversion Rate | 72.4% Power Success | 61.0% Power Success | Lions Heavy Package |
| Unit Matchup | Detroit Metric | Indianapolis Metric | Tactical Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Passing EPA (10-19 Yards) | +0.42 EPA/att | +0.18 EPA/att | DET Middle of Field |
| Deep Shot Accuracy (20+ Air Yards) | 44.8% Completed | 41.2% Completed | Lions Play Action |
| Pass Rush Pressure Rate | 36.4% Pressure | 33.1% Pressure | Colts Quick Release |
| Unit Matchup | Detroit Metric | Indianapolis Metric | Tactical Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Zone Touchdown Rate | 68.2% TD Rate | 54.5% TD Rate | Lions Red Zone Execution |
| Defensive Red Zone Stop Rate | 48.0% Stops | 52.1% Stops | IND High-Red Bend/Don't Break |
| Turnover Margin Differential | +0.52 / game | -0.12 / game | DET Ball Security |