Simulation Parameters
EIA / Bloomberg Model
100%
Mandated reduction of Gulf Coast waterborne distillate exports (normally ~1.32 MBPD).
25.4 Days
Days of forward domestic consumption (historical average: 30-34 days).
92.5%
Aggregate operable run rate across PADD 1-5 refining hubs.
$2.85/gal
Gulf Coast prompt physical ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) baseline.
4.10 MBPD
Daily US freight, agricultural, and heating distillate burn.
Legislative Context: Under consideration by Senate leadership to curb domestic pump inflation. Restricting exports traps Gulf Coast output domestically, reducing prompt wholesale prices but compressing refining crack margins and forcing European/Latin American buyers into alternative global sourcing.
Simulated Wholesale Price
$2.34
-17.89%
vs baseline
Gulf Coast Surplus Redirection
1.32 MBPD
Trapped domestic barrels
PADD 1 (East Coast) Deficit
0.00 MBPD
Full Colonial Pipeline Buffer
Refining Margin Impact
-$4.25 /bbl
3:2:1 Crack Spread shift
Distillate Supply Flow & Jones Act Coastal Routing
Surplus Redirection Active
Price Impact Curve by Ban %
Regional Inventory Cushion (Days)