Diesel Shock Corridor: US Freight & Supply Chain Cascade Model

Corridor Parameters Midwest Ag

Exposure Archetypes

Baseline US Diesel Price $5.85/gal

$3.50 Normal $5.85 Record Peak $7.50 Embargo

FSC Contract Peg Baseline $1.25/gal

FSC Step Interval $0.06/mi per $0.05/gal

Class 8 Loaded Fleet MPG 6.5 MPG

Reefer APU Fuel Burn 0.8 gal/hr

Deadhead Empty Reposition 14.0%

FSC Mechanics: When diesel exceeds the peg baseline, carriers add Surcharge = ((Diesel - Peg) / 0.05) × Step. Fixed contracts absorb 100% of the variance.

STATUS: SIMULATING LIVE FLOW

FLOW BURN: 241,800 GAL/WK

PADD BOTTLENECK: PADD 1 EAST COAST (22 DAYS RES)

Hint: Drag nodes to simulate hub reroutes. Click a corridor to focus metrics. ACTIVE: Midwest Ag to Port of NY/NJ

Active Corridor Impact HIGH STRESS

Fuel Surcharge / Mi $5.52 +341% over peg

Per-Load Trip Fuel $1,148 196.2 gals burned

Carrier Operating Ratio 98.4% Breakeven danger > 96%

Grocery Shelf Inflation +2.48% $0.098 / ton-mile

PADD Regional Inventory Stress (Reserve Days)

Chokepoint Stress Injection

Pass-Through Mechanics: Agricultural and refrigerated groceries operate on sub-2% net retail margins; a $1,000+ diesel per-load surge pushes carrier operating ratios toward bankruptcy unless 100% is passed downstream.

Generated Logistics Corridor Risk Audit

Formatted dispatch audit snapshot calibrated to the AP $5.85/gal diesel baseline.