Geopolitical Shocks & Costs
LIVE INPUTS
Conflict Severity
75%
Black Sea export blockage, sanctions & crude war-risk premium
Refinery Capacity Loss
12.5%
European & Russian middle-distillate cracking constraints
Crude Oil Baseline (Brent)
$85.00/bbl
Underlying global crude market price floor
Logistics Surcharge
15.0%
Tanker rerouting, marine insurance, and pipeline disruption
Scenario Presets
Data Actions
Projected Retail Diesel
$4.38
National average retail $/gal
Refining Crack Spread
$1.42
Distillate margin per gallon
Transport Inflation Index
134.2
Logistics cost baseline (100 = Norm)
Annual Fleet Truck Impact
$11,450
Added fuel expense per Class-8 unit
12-Month Projection Curve & Component Breakdown
Retail $/gal vs. Crude Benchmark
Price Anatomy per Gallon
| Cost Component | $/Gal | Share |
|---|
Attribution & Causal Mechanisms
Refining Disruption: Diesel requires specific middle-distillate cracking configurations. European refinery sanctions and Russian diesel feedstock embargos spiked wholesale crack spreads from $0.52 to $1.42/gal.
Logistics Friction: Banning Russian maritime shipping forced longer sea voyages around Africa and increased global tanker spot insurance premiums, adding direct freight surcharges.
Fleet Sensitivity: Every $0.10/gallon hike adds approximately $1,000/year to long-haul freight operations running 100,000 miles per vehicle.