Energy Macro Lab

Diesel Price Shock & Supply Chain Simulator

Source: FORTUNE via @unusual_whales (Iran war diesel spike)

Shocked Diesel Price $5.60 +60.0% over pre-war baseline ($3.50)

Freight Cost Increase 22.2% Direct commercial carrier operational bump

Avg. Annual Household Burden $1,420.50 Total passed-through retail & energy inflation

Most Impacted Sector Freight & Logistics Fuel represents ~37% of carrier OPEX

Shock Parameters

Diesel Price Surge +60%

0% (Flat) +60% (Fortune) +150% (Extreme)

Pre-War Baseline Price $3.50/gal

$2.50 $3.50 (Historical) $5.00

Shock Scenarios

Logistics Sensitivities

Annual Fleet Miles 120,000 mi

50k mi 120k mi 250k mi

Fuel Share of Freight OPEX 37%

20% (Rail heavy) 37% (Long haul) 50%

Pass-Through to Consumer 75%

30% Absorbed 75% Typical 100% Full

Supply Chain Transmission Topology

Fuel Source

Logistics Conduit

Intermediate Processing

Retail / End User

Sector Inflation & Producer Cost Multipliers

Simulated cost transmission through input-output matrices based on diesel consumption intensity.

Freight & Logistics +22.2%

Sensitivity: 1.85x +$0.48 / ton-mi

Agriculture & Food +8.7%

Tractor & Fertilizer +$380 / yr food

Manufacturing +5.3%

Raw Inbound Freight +$245 / yr goods

Retail & Consumer +4.1%

Final Mile Delivery +$190 / yr general

Ready to share macroeconomic impact analysis

Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super