Weights each outcome by the submitted customer-patience probability.
STRATEGIC DISCLOSURE WORKBENCH
What is secrecy worth before customers walk?
Compare speaking now with preserving leverage. Every number is a hypothetical assumption, not company data, valuation, or investment advice.
NO SCENARIO CALCULATEDHYPOTHETICAL INPUTS
EXPECTED-VALUE CHOICE—
—
Break-even patience—
Minimax-regret choice—
The switching point is computed from your payoffs. It is not a forecast.
One scenario. Two decision rules.
Solves the probability where disclosure and secrecy have equal expected payoff.
Chooses the strategy with the smaller worst shortfall across both customer states.
Expected values weight declared payoffs
Read the explanation
At the saved hypothetical patience probability point three five, disclosure payoff is point three five times seventy two plus point six five times forty, or fifty one point two. Secrecy is point three five times ninety plus point six five times twenty five, or forty seven point seven five. These bars use eight pixels per payoff unit. This calculation compares invented scenario assumptions, not company data, stock value or investment advice. Disclosure slope is seventy two minus forty, or thirty two. Secrecy slope is ninety minus twenty five, or sixty five. The bars compare these slopes at six pixels per payoff unit. Equating both expected values gives fifteen divided by thirty three, about forty five point four five percent patience. Equal slopes produce no crossing value in this code. The threshold is algebra under supplied inputs, not a forecast. At the saved sample, disclosure gives up eighteen payoff units in the patient state, and secrecy gives up fifteen in the impatient state. Their worst regrets are eighteen and fifteen; minimax regret selects secrecy even when sample expected value selects disclosure. These bars use twenty pixels per regret unit. Export preserves complete inputs and both decision rules with explicit limitations. Neither rule verifies assumptions or recommends a stock.