Did a new channel unlock behavior, or just add traffic?
Compare observed cohorts on activation, monetization, distribution efficiency, and contribution. The verdict uses three explicit evidence gates, never a weighted score.
Two-cohort evidence
cohort, role, visitors, activated, payers, revenue_usd, distribution_cost_usd
Traction is the evidence.One baseline. One new distribution channel. Three transparent gates.
Canonical comparison
Distribution leverage is visible
Evidence gatesactivation · value · efficiency
Legacy baseline
Activation
Payer conversion
Revenue / visitor
Cost / activation
Contribution
Revenue / payer
New channel
Activation
Payer conversion
Revenue / visitor
Cost / activation
Contribution
Revenue / payer
Activation lift
Payer lift
Revenue multiple
Contribution change
Illustrative cohorts only. This comparison does not prove causality, retention, market size, future demand, or that AI and agents are universally better distribution. Validate with repeated cohorts and product-specific evidence.