How Postseason Leverage Index (LI) Works
Leverage Index quantifies the swing in win probability at stake on a given pitch or plate appearance relative to an average MLB game situation (1.0). In October baseball, late-inning base-out states with runners in scoring position frequently eclipse 3.0 to 5.0 LI, representing championship-altering swings.
Run Expectancy (RE24) represents the expected runs scored in the remainder of the half-inning given the 24 possible base-out states (e.g. 1st & 2nd with 1 out has an empirical expectation of 1.43 runs).
October Best-of-5 Series Dynamics
Unlike the 7-game League Championship Series and World Series, the Division Series is a sprint. Dropping Game 1 at home instantly cuts a favorite's series advancement probability from ~60% down to under 35%. Managers deploy starters in bullpen relief and aggressively manage high-leverage innings as early as the 6th.
Simulate all four Division Series matchups on today's postseason slate by toggling the header cards above, and experiment with late-inning squeeze plays, stolen bases, and bullpen fatigue.