October Division Series Bracket (Best-of-5)
American League ALDS
Best of 5
ALDS Matchup 1
Game 1
#1
Yankees
0
#5
Royals
0
ALDS Matchup 2
Game 1
#2
Guardians
0
#6
Tigers
0
National League NLDS
Best of 5
NLDS Matchup 1
Game 1
#1
Dodgers
0
#4
Padres
0
NLDS Matchup 2
Game 1
#2
Phillies
0
#6
Mets
0
League Championship & World Series (Best-of-7)
ALCS (Pennant)
TBD (ALDS 1)
-
TBD (ALDS 2)
-
Fall Classic: World Series
AL Champion
-
NL Champion
-
NLCS (Pennant)
TBD (NLDS 1)
-
TBD (NLDS 2)
-
Championship Probability Distribution
10,000 Monte Carlo Iterations with Log5 and Rest/Pitching Leverage
Sample: 10,000 Runs
WS Title Favorite
Dodgers (24.8%)
Pennant Probability (AL)
Yankees (42.5%)
Pennant Probability (NL)
Dodgers (46.1%)
Sweep Likelihood (LDS)
18.4%
Postseason Event Log & Crucial Outs
0 events recorded
INFO
The Wild Card round has settled. Eight clubs remain in pursuit of the Commissioner's Trophy.
October Postseason Mechanics & Leverage Modeling
Log5 Probability Engine
Computes heads-up true talent win rates derived from Pythagenpat run differentials, regular season pythagorean records, and head-to-head adjustments.
Ace Rest & Bullpen Decay
Short series disproportionately reward high-end starting pitching. Aces can start Games 1 and 5 in the LDS, increasing win odds by up to 8.5% over league baseline.
Home Field Advantage (HFA)
Historically worth approximately +3.8% to +5.1% in October series due to last-at-bat leverage in extra innings and hostile stadium noise.