Bleacher Report: "Drake Maye entered the 4th quarter tonight with a 10-3 lead... He then threw 3 INTs and the Seahawks came back to win 13-10 🤯"
Teams entering the 4th quarter holding a 7+ point lead (10-3) historically win 88.4% of NFL matchups. Throwing 3 or more interceptions in a single 4th quarter reduces late lead retention to under 14.2%, resulting in Seattle's 13-10 comeback victory.
Saved opening event scores ten and three differ by seven. Bars compare scores at fifty pixels per point. Final assigned event scores thirteen and ten differ by three in the other direction. Source game claims and probabilities are saved fixtures, not independently verified observations. Saved probability endpoint eighty-four and final twelve percent differ by seventy-two percentage points. Bars compare assigned endpoints at seven pixels per percentage point. This trajectory does not establish calibrated probabilities or the causal effect of turnovers. At elapsed second one hundred twenty-five, ratio between saved events forty and two hundred ten seconds is one half. Interpolate assigned sixty-eight toward sixty-four to obtain sixty-six. Bars compare prior event and midpoint at eight pixels per percentage point. Source rounds interpolation; it does not fit a win model. Complete native timeline JSON/reset and responsive first-footer checks preserved.