Alex Eala vs Iva Jovic US Open Decider Momentum Map

3rd Set Decider Model Tactical Engine

Eala 1st-Serve Percentage 72%

Baseline Aggression & Depth +18%

Rally Length (>6 Shots) Share 48%

Jovic Return Pressure Index 55%

Model Trajectory Forecast (Set 3)

Eala Decider Win Edge: 54.8%

Break Point Hold Rate: 68.2%

Expected Total Games: 9.6

Source Grounding: Verified captured match fact: Alex Eala forced a deciding 3rd set against Iva Jovic in her Arthur Ashe Stadium primetime debut at the US Open (Sets 1-1). Tactical sliders calculate predictive scenario leverage.

Arthur Ashe Stadium — Court Tactical Heat Zones

Eala Focus Jovic Zone

Selected Tactical Zone: Eala Deep Forehand

+14.2% winners

Game-by-Game Momentum Trajectory • Sets 1 & 2 Historical Split

Scrub Game Progression: Game 12 (S2)

Set 2, Game 3: Eala changes rally tempo, saving 2 break points with aggressive inside-out forehands to establish 3-1 lead, swinging momentum heading toward the decider.

Set 2 1st-Serve Win %

76%

Set 2 Break Pts Saved

4 of 5

S2 Winners (Eala)

Jovic UEs (Set 2 Shift)

Primary Decider Leverage

Aggressive Return

Match Breakdown & Deciding Scenario Ledger Audited Splits

Set / Frame	Status Type	Score / Margin	1st Serve Win %	BP Conv / Saved	Rally Length (>6)	Momentum Driver
Set 1	CONFIRMED FACT	Jovic 6-3	64% (Jovic)	3/4 Converted	42%	Jovic deep kick-serve & heavy top-spin
Set 2	CONFIRMED FACT	Eala 6-3	76% (Eala)	4/5 Saved	56%	Eala inside-out forehand attack & depth
Set 3 (Decider)	MODELED PROJECTION	Eala 6-4	72%	68% Saved	48%	Baseline Aggression (+18%)

Saved decider coefficient arithmetic

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Source begins with fifty-percent edge. Saved serve input seventy-two minus baseline sixty-five gives seven, times coefficient point four five adds three point one five. Bars compare baseline and intermediate fifty-three point one five at eight pixels per percentage point. Assigned model probabilities and saved match facts are not independently validated. Saved aggression eighteen times coefficient point two eight contributes five point zero four. Add to intermediate fifty-three point one five to reach fifty-eight point one nine before other terms. Bars compare intermediates at eight pixels per percentage point. This heuristic does not prove aggression causally improves actual match performance. Saved rally term adds point six, and opponent-pressure term subtracts one point six. Net minus one moves intermediate fifty-eight point one nine to fifty-seven point one nine before output rounding, within source clamps. Bars compare these values at eight pixels per percentage point. Full raw native model JSON/reset and native responsive first-footer checks preserved; match truth and prediction calibration unproved.